Europe Economics Update Will France fall into a triple-dip recession? Recent economic data may overstate the threat that the French economy will enter a triple-dip recession in Q4. But they do underline that the country’s recovery in 2014 will be very weak. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s Ifo survey was consistent with other evidence pointing to steady but unspectacular growth in the German economy. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland's debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong can the euro-zone recovery get? Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) December’s German ZEW survey suggested that financial market participants have ended the year in a reasonably upbeat mood towards the economic outlook. 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank's decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s debt write-down plan will support the recovery Iceland’s controversial plan for more debt relief for indebted households is, despite some risks, a positive for the economy. But the scope for similar measures in the euro-zone’s periphery is limited... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) The latest euro-zone trade data highlight that the external sector remains too weak to singlehandedly power an economic recovery. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a bit of a relief after the previous two monthly falls. But the index still suggests that GDP growth in the region is likely to have been... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q3) Q3’s employment data add to evidence that the euro-zone’s labour market is finally stabilising. But a burst of strong job growth is probably a distant prospect. 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenian stress tests boost efforts to avoid bail-out Slovenia’s new bank recapitalisation plans will help the country avoid a bail-out. But its stress test results might have worrying implications for the euro-zone’s own upcoming evaluation of banks. 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that industry will make another negative contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the euro The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
