Europe Economics Update Norway's housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom is ending Norway’s long housing boom is losing steam. Although a collapse in prices is unlikely, the slowdown in the housing market suggests that the economy will weaken more than the consensus expects. 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB fear deflation? There are some good reasons why the ECB should be worried about the prospect of a bout of consumer price deflation in the euro-zone. But it is not clear that it has the firepower to prevent it. 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit constraints still a problem despite signs of easing The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS), published last week, suggested that credit constraints might soon start to ease in the euro-zone. But this improvement is only tentative; the fragility of the... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Any fall in French unemployment will be largely illusory Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. (Oct.) & Spa. GDP (Q3) October’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the region’s modest recovery continued in the early stages of Q4. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment case for Italy weaker than Spain The recent return of some international investors to commercial property markets in Spain and Italy seems to reflect the rapid turnaround in sentiment in both economies over the past year or so. Our... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Belgian GDP (Q3) Belgian GDP rose for the second straight quarter in Q3, suggesting that euro-zone GDP recorded another moderate expansion too. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risks too great for Cyprus to fully relax capital controls Although Cyprus has already begun to gradually relax its capital controls, restrictions on deposits leaving the country remain in place. With a fragile banking sector and an economy deep in recession... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) On balance, the smaller peripheral economies in the euro-zone are still making inroads into their budget deficits, but there are some signs that Italy and Spain are faring a bit less well. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data perhaps offered tentative signs that the fall in bank lending is easing, but a decent pick-up in credit remains a distant prospect. 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct 13.) The fall in German Ifo business sentiment in October provided another timely reminder that the euro-zone recovery remains fragile. 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the euro-zone recovery lift equity earnings? The depressed level of euro-zone aggregate corporate earnings largely reflects the weakness of the region’s economy. While we continue to think that the recovery in GDP will be unspectacular, a... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
