Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to expect from the BRICS+ summit The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2024) While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably not the start of a sustained recovery. We think production is more likely to... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to patchy recovery The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Budget jitters The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
FX GBP likely to fall by more against EUR than USD We expect sterling to weaken by ~4% against the euro and ~1% against the dollar by end-2025. This reflects our view that the Bank of England will loosen monetary policy by more than what investors are... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with the economy growing The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
