Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports the message from the PMI that euro-zone growth accelerated towards the end of the year, albeit with continued divergence across... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer suggests that GDP growth could accelerate in the near term. But with the full effects of the franc’s strength yet to be felt and deflation risks... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Provisional Q3 GDP data from France and Spain support the message from the business surveys that euro-zone GDP continued to increase at a pretty slow pace. And there are clear signs that the French... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline Icelandic inflation was stable in October and the core rate fell slightly. But with the economy continuing to strengthen, we think that underlying inflation will pick up in the coming months. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone money and credit data continued the positive trend of recentmonths, consistent with a further steady expansion of the economy. Nevertheless,the data suggest that inflation will... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to loosen further but tide will turn before long It seems very likely that the Riksbank will extend its bond purchase programme after it stepped up its dovish rhetoric and suggested that it might even cut the repo rate further. But given our... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank leaves policy unchanged, but rate cuts to come The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and reiterated that no change was likely in the near future. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new Government may be short-lived Even if Spain’s new minority Government gets support for its 2017 Budget, it will struggle to build the consensus needed to pass other measures. Accordingly, political uncertainty will continue to... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s increase in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to a recent run of positive news about the economy. Germany looks set to easily outperform the euro-zone average this year... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a ten-month high suggests that GDP growth may have picked up at the start of Q4. Nevertheless, there is a concerning divergence in conditions between the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might derail our European property yield forecasts? The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts Last week, the European Commission (EC) published the draft Budgets for 2017 as submitted by eurozone governments. On the face of it at least, there is little for the EC to be concerned about. All... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
