Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Slow and uneven revival to continue The economic recovery has lost some momentum over the summer, but we expect that this will be a temporary setback and the backdrop will be strong into the medium term. There is growing evidence of a... 25th August 2021 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB hints at slower tightening, tapering takes stage Hungary’s central bank (MNB) raised its base rate by another 30bp, to 1.50%, as expected today but also dropped its commitment to raise interest rates on a monthly basis which suggests that the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI maintains its dovish tone as outlook dims Israel’s central bank (BoI) sounded more cautious about the outlook at today’s MPC meeting given the rise in virus cases and tightening of containment measures. Provided the third booster jab is... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) The chunky fall in the composite activity PMI suggests that the economy struggled to gain fresh momentum in August despite the apparent easing of the “pingdemic” and the final relaxation of all... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation concerns, economy off to a bad start in Q3 The latest batch of labour market data will have done little to ease the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) concerns that the coming rise in inflation could be sustained in 2022. But we are not... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Delta variant not yet putting brakes on recovery The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) Polish industrial production continued to expand at a solid pace in July while retail sales fell as the re-opening of the economy shifted spending away from goods. The big picture is that the economy... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q2 & Jun. 2021) The release of Q2 GDP data from Norway this morning confirmed that the mainland economy came within a whisker of re-gaining its pre-virus level in June. Growth is set to accelerate in Q3. 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of rising inflation expectations Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen during the past few months, but they are still consistent with our view that inflation will remain well below target over the medium term... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
