Europe Commercial Property Focus Which euro-zone cities and sectors boast the strongest prospects? We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to stay weak, prompting interest rates to stay low and supporting valuations of prime property assets. In this environment, property yields can continue... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields? Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to the evidence that the economy has performed fairly well so far in Q4. However, we expect growth to slow next year, putting pressure on... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Nov.) The Economic Tendency Indicator now points to annual Swedish GDP growth of over 4%, while consumers’ inflation expectations have also jumped. Both factors suggest that any further loosening by the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s decline does not take the onus off the ECB Taken in isolation, the euro’s decline against the dollar is a welcome development for the euro-zone economy. But in trade-weighted terms, the currency has still strengthened this year. And given that... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that GDP growth should edge up in Q4, implying that political uncertainty has yet to take a toll on the economy. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Norwegian Labour Force Survey (LFS) provided some hints that the recent rise in unemployment might be coming to an end. Meanwhile, other perhaps more reliable measures of unemployment have... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What if Italy votes “no”? The final opinion polls ahead of Italy’s forthcoming referendum suggest that the public will reject the proposed constitutional reforms. The low level of bond yields suggests that investors are not... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the risks around the French election Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slower Spanish retail rental growth likely to prove temporary Retail rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid has slowed recently, despite the continued strength of retail sales. With weaker domestic demand on the horizon, rental growth is likely to ease further... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks October’s consumer prices data highlight the contrasting inflation outlooks in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. In Sweden, consumer price inflation picked up to its strongest rate in four-and-a-half... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
