Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth was caused by net trade. While the latest evidence suggests that growth is unlikely to pick up much in Q2, it should still... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) April’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the consumer sector fared a little better in Q2 than it did in Q1. Nevertheless, May’s Composite PMI is consistent with the pace of GDP growth remaining... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Italy turmoil boosts Swiss franc and government bonds The recent political turmoil in Italy gave the Swiss franc and Nordic & Swiss government bonds a boost at the end of May as investors sought safe havens. Stronger exchange rates weighed on equities in... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) After reaching an eight-month high in May, core inflation looks set to rise further. Moreover, recent increases in oil prices will push headline inflation above 2% next month. While the recent drama... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion? The fallout from the latest political turmoil in Italy has so far been contained, with limited impact on other euro-zone countries’ financial markets. There are good reasons to expect this to remain... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might cause property yields to rise sharply? In the absence of a sharp surge in euro-zone inflation, a fresh recession or protracted stagnation, or a major escalation of current political tensions, property yields are more likely to drift slowly... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) After falling only slightly in May, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides some reassurance that the softness in activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF The Swedish economy made a strong start to 2018 and the outlook is positive. Healthy growth is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight Italy’s fragile situation If sentiment towards Italy deteriorates as a result of the current political situation, we could see renewed capital flight and a further worsening of Italy’s already-high TARGET2 liabilities. But... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and lending data provide further evidence that economic growth has peaked. While households’ and firms’ demand for loans is still fairly strong, the deteriorating situation in... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB’s hopes on growth be dashed? The “account” of the ECB’s April meeting, released this week, revealed that policymakers had taken a pretty sanguine view of the weakness of survey indicators and hard data in the first few months of... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Majority of markets overvalued Although property yields ticked down only slightly in Q1, rises in both government bond yields and equity dividend yields meant that property valuations deteriorated. For the first time since we have... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s fall in the euro-zone PMI yet again partly reflected temporary factors, but the continued softness of the surveys in Q2 is certainly a concern. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come? Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Running out of steam A number of indicators suggest that the current cycle is running out of steam. Although investment across the euro-zone was up compared to the first quarter of last year, on a four-quarter basis, it... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
