Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wage growth generally still subdued Given the strength of their labour markets, wage inflation is likely to pick up a bit in the US, UK and, to a lesser extent, the euro-zone and Japan over the coming quarters. But as Jerome Powell... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Italian and Spanish equities remain safe havens? Benchmark equity indices in Italy and Spain have outperformed those elsewhere in Europe in the past days. But while the reasons for this may continue, they remain vulnerable to political risks. 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Swiss and Nordic central banks follow the ECB? The Swiss and Nordic central banks are unlikely to follow the ECB in announcing significant changes to monetary policy over the next month. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why are we so bullish on Nordic office rents? Over the last decade, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm have experienced a reduction in floorspace per employee. As a result, firms have been able to pay higher prime rents than previously. We think that... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What could upend the ECB’s plans? The ECB finally announced this week that the end of its asset purchase programme is in sight and that rates will stay on hold at least until the second half of 2019. But the ECB is not on auto-pilot... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) & Goods Trade (Apr.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q1 is another sign that the economy is moving in the right direction. Over the coming years, we think wage growth will continue to rise, but only gradually. So... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes dovish tone as asset purchases set to end The ECB announced today that its asset purchase programme will end in December. But its other communications reinforced our long-held view that interest rates will not rise until at least September... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone’s recovery too good to last? Fears that the euro-zone’s recovery is going into reverse seem overdone. Weakness in Q1 related partly to temporary factors, the effects of Italian political turmoil have been contained and prospects... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy has not rebounded strongly since Q1’s slowdown. Nevertheless, with more timely survey measures of activity still... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where will office rents rise fastest? A solid employment growth outlook, combined with relatively small development pipelines will enable a weighted average of Western European office rents to climb by around 8% p.a. in the 2018-20 period... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook At the tipping point The economic backdrop continues to be supportive of occupier markets, in spite of the euro-zone’s weaker-than-expected start to the year. But with the growth expected to slow, investment volumes... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandinavia and Switzerland look late-cycle The cycle in Scandinavia and Switzerland is showing signs of turning, with investment activity down compared to 2017 and 2016. The prospects are brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields are likely to... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mixed signals from Italy’s new government Italy’s new prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, gave his maiden speech to parliament this week, and his comments riled the markets. After all, he reiterated the Government’s intentions to cut taxes... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen to Italy’s TARGET2 liabilities? Although Italy is likely to stay in the euro-zone for the foreseeable future, recent political developments have resurrected the possibility of it leaving at some point and raised the issue of how... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
