Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s small rise in German industrial production suggests that delays to car output are not doing quite as much damage as we had feared, but it still seems likely that GDP barely expanded in Q3. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime retail rents increasingly likely to plateau The number of retail markets seeing prime rents stagnate or fall is at the highest level since 2009. But there are good reasons why that number is more likely to rise than to reverse over the next... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emissions testing to blame for Q3 slowdown Data on car production imply that delays related to emissions testing may have been entirely responsible for the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3. While the underlying... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unfazed by weak surveys, Italy in the spotlight Euro-zone surveys published this week painted a pretty gloomy picture of the economy at the start of Q4. Some of that weakness probably reflected temporary factors and the ECB didn’t appear to be too... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond markets less vulnerable to contagion from Italy Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions between Italy and EU ratcheting up The EU is almost certain to reject Italy’s draft budget. In our view, it is most likely that a re-drafted budget would still fail to meet the EU’s rules, so Italy will probably be put into an... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
