Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Swiss and Swedish manufacturers are performing well, while their Norwegian and Danish counterparts are still lagging behind. 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small pick-up in euro-zone headline inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from announcing further policy stimulus next week. Indeed, underlying price pressures remain subdued and inflation... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German inflation data suggest that euro-zone inflation was unchanged at a low level. And while energy effects should cause headline inflation to rise sharply in the months ahead, the German... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q3, 1st Estimate) Sweden’s decent economic expansion in Q3 masks a sharp slowdown in domestic demand growth. But with survey indicators pointing to a renewed acceleration in GDP growth in Q4, that slowdown looks set to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which euro-zone cities and sectors boast the strongest prospects? We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to stay weak, prompting interest rates to stay low and supporting valuations of prime property assets. In this environment, property yields can continue... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields? Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to the evidence that the economy has performed fairly well so far in Q4. However, we expect growth to slow next year, putting pressure on... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Nov.) The Economic Tendency Indicator now points to annual Swedish GDP growth of over 4%, while consumers’ inflation expectations have also jumped. Both factors suggest that any further loosening by the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s decline does not take the onus off the ECB Taken in isolation, the euro’s decline against the dollar is a welcome development for the euro-zone economy. But in trade-weighted terms, the currency has still strengthened this year. And given that... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that GDP growth should edge up in Q4, implying that political uncertainty has yet to take a toll on the economy. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Norwegian Labour Force Survey (LFS) provided some hints that the recent rise in unemployment might be coming to an end. Meanwhile, other perhaps more reliable measures of unemployment have... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What if Italy votes “no”? The final opinion polls ahead of Italy’s forthcoming referendum suggest that the public will reject the proposed constitutional reforms. The low level of bond yields suggests that investors are not... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
