Europe Commercial Property Update What do equity price falls imply for European property? The past relationship suggests that the recent 10% to 50% fall in real estate equity prices provide an indication of the direction values will move in the direct market, but not the likely extent of... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property is the victim not the villain this time Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a... 26th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jobless rate to erase seven years of gains We think the unemployment rate in the euro-zone will surge to about 12% by the end of June, giving up seven years’ worth of gains in a matter of months. Much of this may prove temporary if the economy... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook COVID-19 to hit property values by at least 8% in 2020 The ever-changing economic effects of COVID-19 mean that the impact on real estate markets is highly uncertain. It is clear that the sharp contraction in economic activity and deterioration in... 20th March 2020 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update Additional €750bn of QE will not be ECB’s last move The ECB announced late yesterday evening a new €750bn programme of bond purchases which is intended to contain borrowing costs for southern economies. This gives it a lot more firepower which should... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will be forced into more drastic action Last week’s ECB decision gave it more ammunition to combat the fallout from the coronavirus, but it will not be enough. We now think the Bank will soon make an explicit commitment to keep sovereign... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian quarantine to cause deeper downturn As a share of the population, Italy already has double the number of coronavirus cases as China, and the entire country is now in quarantine. We think that this is likely to cause its economy to... 10th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does COVID-19 mean for commercial real estate? The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy response will only cushion the blow The market slump will galvanise policymakers into action. The situation is evolving quickly but we now think there will be a fiscal stimulus of at least 1% of GDP in the euro-zone this year, and... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian GDP likely to contract in Q1 and Q2 The response by policymakers, households and firms to the spread of the coronavirus looks set to take a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. We suspect that GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2, and that... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Deterioration in valuations likely to prove temporary The uptick in government and corporate bond yields in Q4, coupled with the continued decline in property yields, resulted in a deterioration in the relative valuation of commercial property markets in... 5th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Waiting for the contagion Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business... 4th March 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The increase in euro-zone retail sales data in January suggests that household consumption picked up at the beginning of the year, but we suspect that spending will drop in Q2 as the Covid-19 virus... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
