Global Markets Update Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the rental backlog derail the retail recovery? One feature of the COVID-19 era has been persistent non-payment of rents, particularly in the retail and leisure sectors. But we don’t think this will come to a head next year once the eviction ban... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weak activity news likely to stave off rate hike On the back of the surge in inflation in August and the blistering increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, investors and some economists have shifted their expectations of the first rate... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Rising costs – from shipping to energy – are likely to push euro-zone inflation up even further in the coming months. They might also mean that it doesn’t fall quite as quickly next year as we... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The fourth consecutive fall in retail sales in August isn’t as bad as it looks as some of it reflects households spending more on non-retail items as life returns closer to normal. But as non-retail... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Sector fortunes to shift While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow... 16th September 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House price boom has further to run The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the global property upturn? The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics The rise in consumer prices is not widespread A deeper dive into the CPI figures supports our initial analysis that the bulk of the jump in inflation from 2.0% in July to 3.2% in August is due to base effects linked to falling consumer prices in... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone average hourly labour costs in Q2 compared to a year earlier was mainly due to pandemic-related distortions to the data that will continue to muddy the picture for another... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The leap in CPI inflation from 2.0% in July to a nine-year high of 3.2% in August (consensus 2.9%, CE 3.1%) is the first step in a rise that may take inflation to 4.5% or above by November. But as... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
