UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small fall in the composite activity PMI in September indicates that the economy lost a little more momentum. But at the same time, there were clear signs that price pressures have continued to... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s PMIs suggest that the pace of recovery slowed further at the end of Q3, in part as the euro-zone economy approaches its pre-virus size but also as supply shortages continue to bite. Price... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a transition to net-zero cause higher inflation? A gradual transition to ‘net-zero’ emissions would have a modest impact on inflation but could still make life more difficult for central banks if it happened at a time when other pressures were... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB to stick with slower pace of tightening Hungary’s central bank (MNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle today, raising its base rate by a smaller-than-expected 15bp to 1.65%, and the post-meeting communications signalled that future... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Prices to continue rising as stamp duty holiday elapses There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold... 21st September 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Worrying more about higher inflation The recent rises in 2-year and 10-year gilt yields to their highest levels since the “dash for cash” at the start of the pandemic have entirely been driven by the investors revising up their... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update “QT” creeping up the agenda in Sweden The Riksbank stuck firmly to “Plan A” this morning by maintaining the status quo for the repo rate and its asset purchase programme. However, the slight tweak to the Bank’s language on the outlook for... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Poland’s economy appeared to lose steam in August amid signs that global chip shortages started to weigh on industrial output and retail sales failed to reverse a dip in July. We still think that GDP... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public finances figures provided further evidence that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. But the rumours... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland and Nordics to sidestep gas price woes The low use of gas, and a reliance on nuclear and renewables for electricity generation, means that Switzerland and the Nordics are less exposed to the recent surge in gas prices than other parts of... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising gas prices will hit Spain hardest The upward pressure on euro-zone headline inflation from the surge in natural gas prices will not be felt evenly throughout the region, with Spain looking most vulnerable. Governments are stepping in... 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
