UK Economics Farewell furlough The impact on the labour market of the end of the furlough scheme could ultimately determine whether an interest rate hike comes in the next few months, or not until mid-2022. Our view remains that... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property markets to take early rate hike in their stride With UK policy rates now set to rise as early as next spring, this has tipped the risks to our commercial property outlook to the downside. But we don’t think the change is significant enough to make... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo property returns have peaked Rising government bond yields are set to squeeze valuations, resulting in increases in Oslo all-property yields after 2022. This will weigh on returns for Oslo property in the coming years, with... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in August brings the jobless rate back very close to its pre-pandemic level. But employment is still below pre-virus levels, highlighting that the labour market... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q2 Final) Today’s release suggests the economy is closer to its pre-pandemic level than we had previously thought and raises the risk that the Bank of England hikes interest rates sooner than our forecast of... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (September) The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) Net lending to property decreased for the third consecutive month in August, driven by falls in both lending for standing investment and development. Looking ahead, we think that tight credit... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) While still above pre-COVID-19 levels mortgage approvals edged down in August, suggesting no great rush to move before the stamp duty holiday taper ends at the end of September. But an increase in the... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) The tepid increase in consumer credit in August provides more evidence that the economy didn’t regain much momentum after stagnating in July. And with the current fuel crisis restraining activity... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics High utility prices and tax rises a heavy hit to households The double whammy of higher utility prices and the government’s new “health and social care levy” will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next year or so by £16.5bn, or 0.6% of GDP... 28th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone inflation forecasts As a result of the increase in gas prices, we now think that euro-zone headline inflation will soon hit 4% and that it will average 2% in 2022. But headline and core inflation still look set to fall... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external position still in dire straits Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank is particularly worrying given the backdrop of the country’s fragile external position. While the current account deficit has narrowed... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
