Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The construction PMI declined last month to end the year on a negative note, more than erasing the gain made in November. Despite tentative signs that they are starting to ease, we expect labour and... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Dec.) After reaching 5.0% in December, headline euro-zone inflation should fall this year as the energy component plummets. But we think that core inflation will remain around 2%. 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Another substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in December ensured that the lender agreed with Nationwide that the rise in house prices over the 2021 calendar year was the strongest for at... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1 Omicron will reduce economic activity in the coming weeks due to tighter restrictions, consumer caution and absenteeism. Our best guess is that economic activity in the euro-zone will decline in... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK house price growth set for a year of two halves Strong demand will ensure that house prices maintain their momentum in the first half of the year. But rising mortgage rates will weigh on demand further out, causing prices to cool. 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) Germany’s HICP inflation rate fell to 5.7% in December and is now past its peak, but the national CPI measure, which is arguably a better indicator at the moment, rose slightly. Looking ahead, we... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Six key calls and three risks for the UK in 2022 Our new forecasts for 2022 envisage CPI inflation rising further than most expect to a peak of 7% and the Bank of England raising interest rates quicker, from 0.25% now to 1.25% by the end of the year... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for European property in 2022 We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022 We think euro-zone GDP growth will be lower than most anticipate this year, at around 3.5%, while inflation will come down towards 2% by year-end allowing the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
