Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to take pause, as Olsen bows out Norwegian policymakers will keep interest rates on hold, at +0.50%, next Thursday, before resuming their tightening cycle in March. We forecast one rate hike per quarter this year, which is one more... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2021) The Q4 credit conditions survey suggests that, while credit conditions will remain loose, scope for lenders to absorb further increases in interest rates into their margins has run out. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to join tightening crowd later this year We expect policymakers in Denmark and Switzerland to match the 50bps of interest rate hikes that we now forecast in the euro-zone next year. And against the backdrop of rising global interest rates... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Russian inflation held steady at 8.4% y/y in December, but we think it will rise a bit further this month and prompt the central bank to deliver a final 75bp rate hike, to 9.25%, at its meeting next... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to raise rates to zero in 2023 With pandemic-related inflationary pressures proving a bit more intense and persistent than we had anticipated, and policymakers sounding more willing to tighten policy, we think the ECB is most... 12th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Inflation won’t be the fiscal boon many assume While the general perception is that higher inflation is unambiguously good for the public finances, the reality is a bit more nuanced. The Chancellor will almost certainly be gifted with a lower... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rate hikes might not spell the end of ECB QE We doubt that “fiscal dominance” – worries about the impact of higher interest rates on debt sustainability – would stop the ECB from raising interest rates. But it might encourage the Bank to... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) Unemployment in the euro-zone fell again in November, and timelier data suggest that there have been further improvements since then. While there has been less of a hit to the workforce in the euro... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Household (budgets) to feel the heat in 2022 Against a backdrop of higher inflation, a jump in utility prices and rising taxes, household budgets will come under strain in the coming months. Indeed, we are forecasting the fastest contraction in... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
