UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in the Halifax measure of house prices in February provides further evidence that the recent improvement in the housing market has continued. We think housing will pick-up further... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Feb. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI fell to 44.5 in February, reversing some of the gain made in January and leaving the index firmly in contractionary territory. 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The decision by Poland’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% came as a surprise given the inflationary impact of this week’s spike in oil and gas prices. But in spite of the clear... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest surge in Gilt yields The latest surge in Gilt yields mainly reflects investors’ assessment of how the conflict in the Middle East will affect inflation and monetary policy in the UK rather than having much to do with... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement: Extra headroom may soon be wiped out The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the autumn. But that could be swamped by... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Chancellor’s Fiscal Statement (3rd Mar. 2026) For more detailed analysis see here. The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
