UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI fell for the second consecutive month to a new post-pandemic low of 39.4 in November. The drop was broad-based across the sectors, with the housing balance seeing a... 4th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The fall in Swiss inflation to zero will raise significant concerns in the SNB as officials had expected it to rebound and average 0.4% in Q4. This makes it more likely that the SNB will cut into... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The larger than expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 31.1% y/y, provides a green light for the central bank to continue its easing cycle at its meeting next Thursday. We maintain our... 3rd December 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European residential outperformance to persist over 2026-30 Residential rent growth is set to slow over the next couple of years as wage growth moderates, but we expect it to remain above past averages given tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, we think yields... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November 2025) November’s inflation data will do nothing to alter ECB policymakers’ view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate. Next year, we think that headline and core inflation will fall below 2%... 2nd December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in November provides further evidence that actual house prices have been more resilient to Budget uncertainty than some RICS sentiment indicators... 2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Focus EM equities rally to lose some steam outside of Asia We forecast emerging market equities to post solid returns in 2026, although not on the same scale as the exceptional gains seen this year. We expect the biggest returns in EM Asia as the AI boom... 1st December 2025 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its... 1st December 2025 · 15 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Oct. 25) At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level since June. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2025) October’s money and lending figures suggest nervousness about forthcoming tax rises in the Budget on 26th November prompted households to become a bit more cautious with their borrowing and saving. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2025) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
