UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 resilience, ECB losses The latest survey data for February suggest that the euro-zone economy is holding up better than we expected in Q1. However, a contraction is still well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, we... 24th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022, second estimate) The downward revision to German Q4 GDP means the hit to activity at the end of last year was closer to our original expectation. It also suggests a technical recession in Germany during Q4 and Q1 is... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental surge lifts capital values CEE yields continued to rise in Q4, but very strong rental growth prevented all-property capital values from falling for a second successive quarter. This turnaround was driven by retail and... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage problem Last week’s European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion on Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage dispute dealt yet another blow to Poland’s banking sector and will expose those banks with large FX loan portfolios... 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (January) The surprise upward revision to euro-zone core inflation in January, to a new record high, will embolden the majority of ECB policymakers who want to press on with significant further rate hikes. 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Buyers respond to higher rates by borrowing less Higher interest rates have begun to reduce the size of mortgage that buyers take out. As two-thirds of buyers rely on a mortgage, that will decrease most buyers’ budgets and put further downward... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily EZ markets may keep struggling to shake off concerns in the US We doubt “risky” assets in the euro-zone will be resilient to the further weakness we foresee in their counterparts in the US. 22nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Have households spent all their pandemic savings? There is mounting evidence that households have exhausted their stock of savings built up during the pandemic. That has supported real spending and cushioned the blow from the fall in real household... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (January) The final release of German HICP for January confirmed that the headline rate fell but, disappointingly, still didn’t reveal what happened to the core rate. That said, there was some evidence that... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The further rise in the Ifo in February confirms that the German economy may have been a bit more resilient than we had expected in Q1. But with the index still in recessionary territory and the drag... 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (February) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of mixed signals on the global economy While not our base-case forecast, the recent resilience of service sectors and labour markets seem to have raised the chance of a “higher for longer” scenario for policy rates. That could be bad news... 21st February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction output likely to keep falling The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was much stronger than expected in February, but it excludes the construction sector where prospects are weaker. Tighter financial conditions and softer demand in the... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
