UK Economics Update Growth upgrade suggests UK no longer such a laggard The news that the UK economy may now be 1.5% bigger than its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic size, rather than 0.2% smaller, suggests the economy has been much stronger than we previously thought. But with the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE to talk up high for long This week the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said that he didn’t think interest rates will rise much further from 5.25% now but that rates are likely to stay high for a long time. We’re... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August.) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate was unchanged in August as a fall in core inflation was offset by the impact of rising fuel prices. This is the last inflation print before the SNB’s next meeting... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Repayment of €2.2trn TLTROs to have little impact The repayment of ECB TLTROs by banks has gone smoothly so far and we expect the rest of the TLTROs to be repaid by the end of 2024 without significantly affecting financial conditions or interest... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s policy shift: promising start, but a lot more to do Turkey’s policy shift has ticked a lot of the right boxes so far and the central bank’s large rate hike this month will go a long way to rebuilding confidence among investors. But there are still... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone crash now expected to match GFC slump While the macro backdrop was broadly unchanged, rents were stronger and yields were higher than expected in Q2, forcing us to re-examine our 2023 real estate view. As a result, we have edged down our... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug. Flash Est.) The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest activity data for Russia for July suggest that retail sales maintained solid momentum while industry has come off the boil in recent months. We think that the economy as a whole will record... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tourist boost to Iberian retail rents has run its course A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and suggest that the region may be on the road to recovery. What’s more, firms’... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
