UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant... 18th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly China EV investigation, ECB done with hikes The European Commission’s decision to launch an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies underlines policymakers’ resolve to slow China’s rapid ascent in the market. But any measures taken are unlikely... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Employment starting to buckle We’ve been encouraged by the signs that employment is weakening and the labour market is loosening a bit more markedly. What’s more, forward-looking indicators point to employment growth deteriorating... 15th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, at today’s meeting and with the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation pressures to keep building, we think further... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank has one more hike to go We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.25%, and signal that its tightening cycle is over. It is then likely to will wait until around the... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to rally Given our dovish view of monetary policy in Emerging Markets (EMs) – and our increasingly less bearish view of the US economy – we think that EM local-currency government bond yields will fall across... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB lead next week The Riksbank looks all but certain to follow the ECB’s example and raise its key policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%. However, while that could mark the end of its tightening cycle, on balance we... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A coin toss decision for the SNB On balance, we think the SNB will look through the recent low inflation and hike rates by 25bp one last time to 2.00%, given policymakers’ previous hawkish commentary. But with the economy stagnating... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update End of ECB tightening cycle Today’s 25bp rate hike by the ECB probably brings its tightening cycle to an end. Given our view that underlying inflation will ease only gradually even though the euro-zone is heading for a recession... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (September 2023) The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates by a further 25bp today probably brings the current tightening cycle to an end. But given the strength of underlying inflation, we expect rates to remain at... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch One last hike We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky... 14th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (August) Although the drop in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in August was bigger than the consensus had anticipated, it will not prevent policymakers from raising its key policy rate by another... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
