Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets? The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (May 2024) Most assets notched up gains this month, with “risky” ones generally outperforming “safe” ones. Government bond yields generally edged down in May and we expect that to continue, given our view that... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from May This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in May, including our coverage of US tariffs on Chinese-made green technology and recent price movements in the EU... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2024) May’s increases in headline and core inflation – and jump in services inflation to a seven-month high – won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates next week. But another reduction in July now... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024) While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24) Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2024) Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate. 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Residential outperforms within a modest recovery Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total... 30th May 2024 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May) and Unemployment (April 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for May is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP, while price pressures are still strong but are continuing to ease. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields will start falling before long We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting. 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
