Asia Economic Outlook Decoupling is back (Q4 09) We expect the upswing in emerging Asia to stay relatively strong in coming quarters. The more trade-dependent economies will be held back by the long drawn-out recoveries that are likely in the US and... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital controls unlikely, but rupiah to strengthen anyway Bank Indonesia is weighing up the costs and benefits of implementing capital controls because of concerns over “hot money” coming into the economy. However, we doubt the authorities will do anything... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia’s impressive upswing to stay on track Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% y/y and all the key indicators point to a further pick up in coming quarters, with domestic demand leading the way. We are very positive on the outlook... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia stays on hold but rate hikes still close Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected. The neutral bias was retained too, probably with the aim of trying to curb rupiah appreciation. Rupiah strength is relevant to the... 4th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates but probably not for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its overnight lending rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and retained its neutral bias. But inflation looks set to rise sharply over the next few months and we believe that the... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Indonesia rate hike likely in Q1 2010 Bank Indonesia (BI), as expected, today left its overnight lending rate at 6.5%, the first no change since mid-2008. The policy statement was neutral. BI is now more confident that Indonesia’s upswing... 3rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Focus turns to timing the first rate hike in Indonesia Bank Indonesia cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 6.5% today as we and the consensus expected. While the accompanying statement leaves the door open for further cuts we think that rates... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Election result looks good for growth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more easing ahead Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 7% today, in line with our and consensus expectations. While many analysts believe that rates have bottomed out, we maintain our view... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more tightening in the pipeline Indonesia’s latest round of fuel price hikes was designed to safeguard fiscal sustainability and is therefore positive in the long run. However, a worsening near-term inflation outlook is likely to... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Indonesia buck the trend and raise rates? The recent equities and government bonds sell-off in Indonesia has prompted comparisons with an episode in August 2005, when concerns over the fiscal impact of rising oil prices triggered a similar... 8th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Has Indonesia turned a corner? Indonesia has come a long way since the Asian crisis of 1997-98, but for the most part of this last decade it has been a story of underperformance. With appropriate macroeconomic policies and further... 11th February 2008 · 1 min read
