Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank hints at end to FX intervention in early 2015 Following today’s Czech rate-setting meeting, Governor Singer commented that the MPC could end its policy of FX intervention to weaken the koruna by early next year. With the economy recovering and... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update December’s PMIs highlight fragile recovery Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month. Russia aside, the PMI readings are still high by the standard of the past couple of years. Even so, today’s data serve as a reminder that the... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Eastern Europe shrugs off euro-zone slowdown Central and South Eastern Europe seems to have shrugged off the slowdown in the euro-zone in the third quarter of this year, with growth accelerating in most countries. The exception was the Czech... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank pulls the trigger on unconventional easing Faced with growing concerns about deflation, the Czech National Bank voted to ease monetary policy further today by intervening in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna. Few details were... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
