Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The batch of strong Economic Sentiment Indicators across Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that GDP growth in the region as a whole recovered in Q4. But while the aggregate picture... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2016) The weaker-than-expected preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe support our view that growth in the region is likely to settle at a more moderate pace of 2.5-3.0% y/y in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Prague offices at a turning point? The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero The Czech MPC’s post-meeting press conference reinforced our view that it will lift the exchange rate ceiling around the middle of next year. We think it’s unlikely that the koruna will strengthen... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted Despite growing views to the contrary, it’s not clear to us that the Czech koruna will appreciate sharply as and when the National Bank exits the exchange rate “cap” policy. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech and Romanian MPCs remain in dovish mood The Romanian MPC’s press conference was a little more dovish than we had anticipated, but robust domestic demand and rising inflation mean gradual interest rate hikes still seem more likely than not... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4.) The fall in Czech GDP between Q3 and Q4 will take some of the gloss off Emerging Europe’s best performing economy last year. The underlying picture is still strong, but at the margin these data... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Dec.) The weak Czech inflation figure for December, of just 0.1% y/y, reinforces our view that the National Bank will extend its commitment to keeping policy loose. We expect the MPC use the next few policy... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Nov.) The much weaker-than-expected rise in Czech consumer prices last month, of just 0.1% y/y, is unlikely to raise fresh concerns about deflation. But even so, it may tip the balance on the MPC in favour... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
