Global Economic Outlook Recovery to proceed apace despite rising risks to EMs A rise in virus cases and some setbacks to vaccination programmes have pushed back the recoveries in some countries somewhat, but we still expect strong global growth of over 6% this year. The US will... 23rd April 2021 · 45 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation is about to jump, but will the rise persist? Inflation will rise sharply in every major economy in the months ahead, driven by a rebound in energy inflation, tax changes, and supply shortages. On average, CPI inflation in the advanced economies... 19th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early signs of a difficult start to 2021 Global growth slowed throughout the fourth quarter and most economies entered the new year on a weak footing. We have limited hard data for 2021 so far, but timely surveys and our high-frequency... 10th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taper talk a prelude to bigger policy debate Talk of tapering in recent weeks has been premature and we suspect that most major central banks will keep up asset purchases at their current pace for the rest of the year. Assuming that tapering... 4th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Divergence widens as second waves hit The world economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed. Prospects now vary according to success in... 22nd October 2020 · 47 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery to wane as economies diverge The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped... 27th July 2020 · 47 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Worst global recession since WWII The disruption relating to the coronavirus is set to cause the steepest fall in global GDP since the Second World War. We are forecasting a 5½% contraction this year, far bigger than the 0.5% fall... 23rd April 2020 · 45 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Nearing a trough We think that global growth is at or near a trough, with leading indicators picking up around the world and some EMs already experiencing a revival. But the global recovery will be gradual and uneven... 27th January 2020 · 43 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls We expect most of the 2020s to be characterised by slow growth and very low inflation as persistently weak productivity growth leaves the developed world looking distinctly Japanese. But technological... 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Central banks have more work to do Growth has not yet reached a bottom and we expect weakness in advanced economies to drive a further slowdown around the turn of the year. Widespread monetary policy loosening is already underway and... 17th October 2019 · 44 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weak growth to persist despite policy loosening We see world GDP growth slowing further as the US succumbs to the weakness which is already evident elsewhere. The downturn in global manufacturing is spreading to the services sector and labour... 19th July 2019 · 44 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 may not live up to (low) expectations It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we... 27th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Hopes of stabilisation in world trade dashed again After rounding off a weak first quarter, world trade volumes fell in April. As the global economy slows further, world trade growth is likely to be sluggish, almost irrespective of developments in the... 25th June 2019 · 7 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Long-term Global Economic Outlook We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
