Global Markets Outlook Oil prices pivotal to wider outlook Our central scenario assumes that oil prices and food inflation drop back in the second half of the year, reducing the burden on real incomes and the upward pressure on interest rates. This may come... 11th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial sector slowing to a crawl The slowdown in India’s industrial sector growth to 3.8% y/y in May (from a revised 6.2% y/y in April) was worse than even we had expected. Recent monetary tightening suggests that the outlook for the... 11th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea turns to forex intervention to fight inflation The Bank of Korea (BoK) held official rates at 5.00% today, as widely expected. The accompanying statement highlighted the growing dilemma facing the BoK. But successful interventions to prop up the... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Inflation fears to fade, credit problems to persist (Q3 08) The world’s major economies are being battered to varying degrees by a “perfect storm” of soaring commodity prices, the credit crunch, and collapsing housing markets. 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strikes a limited threat to pay growth Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Secondary property still set to do worse than prime To date, secondary capital values have fallen by less than prime. As the economy deteriorates, however, we continue to believe that the fundamental desirability of prime buildings will mean that they... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC can only watch as recession looms The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
