Europe Economic Outlook Inflation dents growth prospects (Q3 08) Our long-held view that the European economy will fare relatively well during the current global economic downturn has come under threat from the surge in inflation in the region. Not only has the... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rate expectations have much further to fall The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rate hike the first of a brief tightening cycle Thailand’s decision to raise interest rates today (by 25bps to 3.5%) was the first in more than two years. However, growing downside risks to growth, despite the recently announced fiscal stimulus... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Why has the saving rate not rebounded more substantially? 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices to fall by 35% (Q3 2008) Recent housing market news has been dire. With the economy also poised for three years of sub-trend growth, the housing market correction is likely to run onto in 2010. We have cut our forecasts. We... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further hikes to come in Turkey (Jul 08) All the focus over the coming months will be on Turkey, where we expect policymakers to follow up a likely rate hike this week with further monetary tightening. Elsewhere in the region, while... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No consensus for changes to GCC dollar pegs The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Diverging house price surveys reflect timing issues – little more All the major indices have now reported some falls in average house prices. But the scale of those falls varies wildly. Should we be concerned? At one extreme, the Halifax and Nationwide have reported... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
