UK Housing Market Focus Mortgage arrears and possessions to rise to a record high Thanks to sharply rising unemployment, we expect mortgage arrears to surpass the early 1990s highs. While Government pressure on lenders to be more lenient with struggling households and the... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update December not the turning point for investment market activity Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Much bolder action required to boost bank lending Faced with soaring recession-related bad debts, we doubt that banks, if left to their own devices, will start lending enough to kick-start the economy. The Government will therefore have to force them... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB drags its heels While the ECB cut interest rates as expected today, it’s warnings that it will not reduce them again at its next meeting confirm that it will continue to drag its heels compared to other central banks... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices add to the gloom in Spain The latest news from Spain shows that the housing market downturn is gaining momentum as the economy enters recession. Further sharp falls over the coming quarters are inevitable and we expect house... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates heading for record lows (Jan 09) The growth outlook for Emerging Europe continues to deteriorate sharply. With oil and food prices now a deflationary force, policymakers are rightly concerned about inflation undershooting rather than... 14th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The pace of house price falls will accelerate in 2009 (Q1 2009) There is little evidence to suggest that house prices are close to their floor. Recent data support our view that house prices will fall a further 20% this year before stabilising in early 2010. This... 14th January 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Too soon to look for economic recovery (Q1 09) With the global downturn still gathering pace, it is far too soon to start positioning for a recovery. Indeed, we now expect GDP in the advanced economies of the G7 to shrink by nearly 2% this year. 14th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Zero interest rates to squeeze bank profits This week’s Bank of England interest rates data confirmed that banks have so far taken advantage of the cuts in official interest rates to boost their profit margins by cutting savings rates more... 14th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Christmas not as bad as feared, but still bad Many of the retailers’ trading statements have been coming in at the better end of expectations, suggesting that Christmas on the high street was not quite as bad as feared. But if the latest BRC... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack GDP to fall by at least 2% this year The latest economic data have been pretty awful. Output in the industrial sector is plummeting in response to weakening global demand. What’s more, there is only limited evidence so far of a boost to... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Industrial slump points to deeper and longer recession Hopes that the euro-zone’s relative lack of indebtedness would allow it to fare comparatively well in the global downturn have been dashed by the slump in the industrial sector and insufficient policy... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
