Capital Daily China’s commodity binge adds to downside risks to prices in H2 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China on a risky path to recovery (Jul 09) Continued rapid loan growth in China makes the emergence of asset bubbles increasingly likely. Around a fifth of loans extended so far this year have been invested in the stock markets, according to... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly will world trade recover? Today’s CPB survey suggests that world trade continued to decline in May, albeit at a much slower rate. We expect a rebound in the coming months. However, the pick-up from then on is likely to be... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO measure of unemployment most relevant for spending The main measures of unemployment have recently been giving conflicting messages. We think that the ILO measure – which is still rising sharply – is most relevant to the consumer spending outlook. 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodities – beware the dragon’s burp The need to feed the supposedly insatiable demand of the Chinese economic dragon is frequently cited as a reason to expect ever-higher commodity prices. However, investors also need to beware of the... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Improvement continues, but from weak starting point (Jul 09) The consumer sector is sharing in the improvement seen in the wider economy. That said, this simply means that consumer spending is probably falling at a slower rate than before, rather than rising... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: BCB cuts as expected, too soon to call the bottom 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone yields stabilise in Q2, but unlikely to have peaked Recent data show yields stabilised in most euro-zone office and retail markets in 2009Q2. While there are reasons to believe this may be the peak for yields, we are sceptical. Investor demand has... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
