UK Economics Update MPC frozen until February The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains firmly in wait and see mode until its February meeting. While the quantitative easing programme may be drawing to a close, other measures to support the... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Price Index (Dec) The latest rise in house prices has not changed our view that a second leg in the house price correction still lies ahead. Admittedly, the timing of any renewed fall in prices is uncertain. But given... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Price Index (Dec) The latest rise in house prices has not changed our view that a second leg in the house price correction still lies ahead. Admittedly, the timing of any renewed fall in prices is uncertain. But given... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Disappointing industrial production not a disaster On the face of it, the 5.1% y/y rise in Brazilian industrial production in November is good news. But the impressive annual growth rate masks a monthly drop of -0.2%. While we wouldn’t read too much... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek Government unlikely to meet its tougher fiscal plans The Greek Government’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012 appears to be encouraging news for markets. But the scale of the adjustment required suggests that the Government will... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Nov.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Euro-zone producer price inflation continued to inch up in November. But it remains deep in negative territory, suggesting that pipeline inflationary pressures remain very weak and that core CPI... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services provided further evidence that the economy moved decisively out of recession in the fourth quarter. However, the recovery is likely to struggle to maintain... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia probably won't stay on hold for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and kept its neutral bias. Nevertheless, we still believe that the risk of far higher inflation from keeping rates low for too long... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK economy looking better-balanced The National Accounts published at the end of last year left the economy looking better-balanced than before. The balance of payments deficit should have recorded the smallest deficit last year since... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fiscal concerns should keep gilts under pressure, but not forever 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal worries won't fade soon Growing concerns over the UK’s fiscal position are unlikely to ease this side of the general election and could well intensify further. But the prospect of a long period of very low inflation and... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP growth to top 3% this year We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: NBR recommences its easing cycle This morning’s decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to cut interest rates by 50bps to 7.5% is likely to be the first of a number of cuts over the coming months. While any further political... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
