Global Markets Focus Gold prices to fall back to $900/oz by year-end Gold prices are struggling again. We do not believe that prices had risen beyond levels that could ever be justified by fundamentals. Nor is it hard to imagine circumstances where they might spike... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil sets the stage for an April rate hike 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) Q4’s Irish GDP figures, showing the economy still mired in a deep recession, underline the prolonged and painful adjustments likely to be faced by the euro-zone’s fiscally challenged economies. 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam moving too slowly The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during April. This is a dangerous strategy. Inflation has already hit 9.5% y/y and will probably... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates to stay on hold until 2011 The Czech National Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.00% this afternoon. But while the markets expect a first rate hike in the third quarter of this year, we do not expect interest rates to be... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One more reason to expect a sluggish recovery The deterioration in the growth outlook for the euro-zone adds to the substantial headwinds already facing the recovery in Emerging Europe. We have nudged down our 2011 GDP forecasts for Slovakia and... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal fears & consumer caution darken euro-zone outlook We have revised our forecasts for the euro-zone economy down in response to the escalating fiscal crisis and fading prospects of a consumer recovery. The changes strengthen our view that ECB interest... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) February’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting much of a pick-up in broad money and bank lending. 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates on hold until June at least Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. The economy has recovered very strongly, but inflation remains a distant threat. As a result, rates are likely to remain at their... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s official measure of retail sales confirmed that high street spending bounced back after the snow and VAT rise hit spending at the start of the year. But the underlying trend appears to have... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more cautious tone With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Budget 2010 This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2010 - Still putting off the inevitable This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
