Europe Economics Update Does the euro-zone cycle lag behind that in the US? The euro-zone’s relative resilience has prompted some optimism lately, but note that the region’s business cycle typically lags behind that of the US. Euro-zone growth will almost certainly follow... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The latest mortgage lending snapshot from the BBA suggests that growing pressure on household finances, rising fears about job security and still-tight lending criteria are depressing activity in the... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2) The breakdown of Q2’s German GDP data looks very encouraging, with the 2.2% quarterly surge in activity driven by both exports and domestic spending. But we doubt that the strength of either is... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to the surge in Czech retail sales than meets the eye The surge in Czech retail sales over the past couple of months is not as good as it seems at first sight. In particular, the rapid rise in sales volumes appears to owe much to heavy discounting by... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Underperformance of Czech Republic industrial yields is unlikely to last The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets still overestimating the pace of tightening 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Effect of consumer austerity on high street shops investment We think that consumer spending will struggle to grow at all for at least the next two to three years. Taking the period 2010-14 as a whole, this will result in average total returns for high street... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's economy shrugs off the political crisis Thailand’s GDP growth came in stronger than our above-consensus forecast in Q2. Export growth will slow from now on but a slump is unlikely while domestic demand is set to stay strong. It is now... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia, not the politics, will drive Australia's outlook The hung parliament outcome of Australia’s weekend election will inevitably hit local markets for a time but the long-run impact should be small. The main political parties have similar fiscal... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the recovery is now beginning to slow alongside those of other major economies. But the index points to pretty strong GDP growth for the time... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to pick up again in H2 Looking on the bright side, the fact that GDP was unexpectedly weak in the second quarter should at least have prepared the way for growth to pick up again in the second half of the year. But the... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts right to be sanguine on inflation Our long-standing bullishness on UK government bonds (or gilts) was further borne out last week when ten year yields slipped through our target of 3%. Gilts have been supported by overseas... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
