Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s plunge in the euro-zone PMI is the strongest sign yet that the eurozone recovery is rapidly losing momentum and that parts of the region may already have fallen back into recession. 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth is better than it looks Colombian Q2 GDP growth came in well below consensus, but in line with our forecast of 4.5% y/y. While global headwinds could cause the pace of growth to slow to around 3.0% in 2011, the mediumterm... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banks in good health, but keep an eye on Brazilian credit risks Latin America’s banking sector remains in good shape and robust credit growth should continue to support the region’s impressive recovery for a while yet. But while the outlook for Latin America’s... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, still in no rush to tighten The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% earlier today, as expected. But the news that one Board member voted for a rate hike will lead to much debate over the future pace... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A change of view on gold We now expect gold prices to stay high for several more years. Fears of runaway inflation or a dollar collapse, which underpin some of the most bullish forecasts for gold, remain exaggerated... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia is re-balancing and will continue to lead (Q3 10) The global upswing is now regaining some traction and the threat of renewed financial crisis has diminished. However, the world recovery will stay weak and vulnerable to other risks such as deflation... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Ireland’s disappointing GDP figures for Q2 support our view that the economy is a long way from staging a sustained recovery and will do nothing to ease markets’ fears about the health of the Irish... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE retail rental values are unlikely to recovery anytime soon Within Central & Eastern Europe, there have been some signs of a recovery in occupier demand, most notably in Poland. However, despite supply pipelines having been drastically reduced across the... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's GDP growth to stay on a weak track New Zealand’s Q2 GDP data, released today, were poor. Reconstruction work following then earthquake will lift growth over the next 12 months but high headline figures will hide an underlying trend... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The August lending data from the BBA was always likely to add to the picture of a subdued mortgage market. But the significant fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase only adds to the evidence... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Vacant space to weigh on industrial rents for some time to come The industrial sector of the economy has recorded decent growth in recent quarters but the outlook for GDP, ultimately the key influence on demand for industrial property, remains weak. And with the... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Real estate supporting summer rebound The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has picked up after bottoming out over the summer, with support coming from a surprising source. 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are investors in TIPS too sanguine about the risk of deflation? 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Too soon to cry victory in Russia's inflation battle Aside from a recent drought-related rise in food prices, our forecast that Russian inflation would fall sharply this year has played out as we expected. But while underlying price pressures should... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity index suggests recovery back on track July’s all industry activity index suggests that Japan’s economic recovery picked up again in the third quarter after wobbling in the second quarter. In particular, the expenditure breakdown (which is... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
