Capital Daily US stock market unlikely to buck the global trend for long 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The collapse in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August may partly reflect a deterioration in sentiment related to the turmoil in EM financial markets last month. Even so, the data provides an... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in the headline manufacturing PMI, from a downwardly-revised 53.8 in July to 52.8 in August, leaves the survey pointing to little improvement in the manufacturing sector’s fortunes. Indeed... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs offer little support to prices China’s PMI readings for August confirm our view that the economy is slowing as a result of subdued domestic demand. Although some policy easing is underway, it will be some time before this... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Tracking the landlord sell-off Our analysis of the BTL lending data suggests that, over the last year, the sell-off among landlords has persisted. And given the further reduction in mortgage interest tax relief that is on the way... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation jumped again in August, reaching 17.9% y/y, and it is likely to rise even further over the coming months. The central bank has just stated that the inflation figures will prompt a... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc strength unlikely to last The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro this week, but we doubt that this will last. Meanwhile, we think that Sweden’s forthcoming general election is unlikely to have much of a... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns boost oil prices It was another good week for the price of oil as concerns about lower Iranian output as a result of US sanctions continued to lift prices. In contrast, a ratcheting up of the US rhetoric on... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Protectionism worries likely to hit equities harder before long 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation shifts point to risks for Italian property Property yields ticked down only slightly again in Q2, but there were more meaningful shifts in the yields of other assets. Safe-haven markets generally saw an improvement in property valuations... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada to take spotlight from NAFTA talks While the US and Canada are aiming to reach a compromise over NAFTA today, at this stage it’s still unclear whether this will happen. Either way, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
