Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests marked slowdown in Q3 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year. We think annualised growth dropped to 1.5% q/q, from 3.2% q/q in Q2. This... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Elections take centre stage The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African CPI reweighting doesn't alter rate outlook The new weights assigned to components of the South African CPI basket, which are due to come into effect in January 2013, will have only a marginal impact on overall inflation. As such, the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI now consistent with GDP contraction South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slumped further in October, and is now at a level consistent with an outright contraction in GDP. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa is still the region’s laggard Growth across sub-Saharan Africa continues to hold up well, despite a weak global economic backdrop. Most countries have now released Q2 GDP data, with particularly strong performances recorded in... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Solid growth amid global weakness Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not completely immune to the continuing crisis in the euro-zone and the effects of weakening growth elsewhere in the developed world, but strong domestic demand and scope... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African eurobonds: who is next in line? Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is economic cost of South Africa’s mining unrest? It is still too early to calculate the full economic impact of labour unrest in South Africa, but our initial estimates suggest that it could knock around 1.5%-pts off GDP in the second half of 2012. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing continues to struggle On the face of it, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for September appears consistent with a contraction in GDP in Q3. And while we would be hesitant to read too much into one month’s figures, the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Growth holding up amid global headwinds The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have so far proved resilient in the face of mounting global headwinds. Q2 GDP data released over the past month have shown a pick-up in growth in several of the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut still possible in November Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Widening current account deficit adds to concerns in S. Africa The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Positive medium-term outlook despite risks The ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining sector has led many to question the medium-term economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but we still believe the region has huge growth potential. In... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
