Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q1 Surprisingly strong retail sales figures support our view that the South African economy held up better in Q1 than many feared. The effect of recent political turbulence, however, will not be felt... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.) South Africa’s PGM output grew strongly in Q1 but, going forward, we expect reduced investment over the past few years to start denting supply. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Industrial sectors held up in Q1 Mining and manufacturing figures show that both sectors unexpectedly strengthened at the end of Q1. This may cushion the impact of any hit to consumer confidence caused by recent political turbulence. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Business confidence holds up This week’s survey indicators provided mixed signals regarding the economic effect of political turbulence in South Africa. But they do, at least, suggest that the immediate economic hit may have been... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s April PMI, which came in at just 44.7, provided an early sign that the sacking of Pravin Gordhan dealt a serious blow to confidence. Other business confidence figures released later... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets weather another storm The relative resilience of South African financial markets in the face of the latest political turbulence has prompted us to revise our end of year rand forecast from R15/US$ to $14/US$. Markets... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Quantifying the economic costs of political tensions Fears that last month’s cabinet reshuffle will knock South Africa’s economy off course have dominated the headlines. But it will be some time before we have enough information to fully quantify the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Slowing inflation in South Africa (which dipped to 6.1% y/y in March) supports our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates later this year. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s overall mine production continued its recovery in February, as higher prices incentivised producers to raise output. The strength of the production data was broad-based, with gold the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbles Activity data suggests that South Africa’s economy had a weak start to the year. Even so, we expect that growth will gain traction later this year, and that the economy will weather the recent... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African fiscal policy: What would be the first sign of a shift? South Africa’s cabinet reshuffle probably won’t have a significant effect on fiscal policy in 2017/2018. In this Update, we highlight what to watch for as the new finance minister settles into his... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: How could Zuma go? Mounting opposition to President Jacob Zuma has sparked speculation that he could be forced from office. In this Update, we examine the mechanics of removing a South African president. 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
