Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s PGM production fell sharply in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that mining firms are finally cutting output in response to lower prices. Looking ahead, wages are... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Manufacturing sector springs to life, for now Today’s strong output figure is a rare sign of life from South Africa’s moribund manufacturing sector. Even so, we expect that the sector will struggle to sustain much growth this year. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unexpected improvement in South Africa’s PMI is very welcome news for the struggling economy. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator with a mixed record of predicting real... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa Economics Update Nigerian officials unexpectedly abandoned two key economic policies yesterday by tightening monetary policy and re-instating a partial ban on rice imports. The immediate economic effects will be mixed... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation, rand weakness force painful hike Today’s interest rate hike in South Africa will be followed with further tightening later this year in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Jan.) The drop in retail sales growth is the latest figure that suggests that the South African economy lost momentum in January. We expect that GDP growth will be a below-consensus 0.5%. 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP data from South Africa underline the economy’s sluggish growth prospects. At the margin, we suspect that these data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
