Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's employment gain of 17,500 jobs, following a slightly larger loss in the month before, was softer than we had expected and was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from nudging higher... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much difference will the Fed's rate forecasts make? The US Fed’s decision to start to publish forecasts for its key official interest rate could be another useful policy tool to keep long-term interest rates low, even though that is not the stated... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The end of the US housing downturn 2012 may well be the year in which the five-year-long decline in US house prices ends. But that doesn’t mean it will also be the year in which prices start to rise consistently. Tough credit... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US manufacturing continues to shrug off euro-zone woes Manufacturing surveys for December suggest the US economy continued to resist the slowdown in Europe right up to the end of 2011. Although US growth is likely to slow this year, we expect this... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Momentum unlikely to be maintained throughout 2012 Our econometric model suggests that the labour market ended 2011 on a high note, with non-farm payrolls rising by around 150,000 in December. That would be a marked turnaround from the stagnation in... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation poised to fall back in 2012 Consumer price inflation reached almost 3% in 2011, its highest rate in several years, with higher energy and food prices the main culprits. As a result of that pick up in inflation, the increase in... 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to watch in 2012 Just how US banks cope with the euro-zone crisis, which we believe will involve the departure of at least one nation from the currency union next year, could make or break the US economy in 2012. 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP By Industry (Oct.)11 October's slightly disappointing GDP, which was largely unchanged from the month before, was not too surprising. Temporary shutdowns and maintenance work dampened output in the energy sector. Apart... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Income/ Spending (Nov.) November's personal spending and durable goods data releases were a little disappointing and together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will now come in at slightly below 2.5% annualised, whereas... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Confidence important during global slowdown Given the worsening global economic outlook and its negative implications for the export sector, confidence among domestic households and businesses will be critical to Canada's overall economic... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Finding a floor The housing market is on the verge of finding a floor. After sliding for five years, in 2012 house prices may finally stop falling. But this doesn’t mean that significant and sustained rises are on... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The 14% downward revision to the number of existing home sales since 2007 confirms that the housing crash has been deeper than originally thought. But this is old news. Much more important is that the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October's surprising retail sales, which grew by 1.0%m/m, suggest that household spending began this quarter on a strong footing. For three months in a row now retail volumes have increased strongly... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply in 2012 We expect the rapid run up in CPI inflation this year to be completely reversed next year, although the core inflation rate will fall more modestly. 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Nov) The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
