US Economics Weekly Is the fiscal cliff already dampening activity? Although the tax hikes and spending cuts that constitute the fiscal cliff aren’t due to take place until the start of next year, businesses are increasingly stating that the resulting fiscal... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Payroll Survey (Jun.) & Balance of Payments (Q2) June's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed solid gains in average weekly earnings and employment, indicate that better second-quarter wages and salaries growth supported stronger consumption... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fiscal cliff may hit hiring Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by around 100,000 in August, which would be disappointing after July’s 163,000 gain. What’s more, it is possible that in the... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDI may be a more robust, and worrying, measure of growth The alternative gross domestic income (GDI) measure of output suggests that the US economy is hardly growing at all. What’s more, there are a couple of reasons why GDI may be a more robust and more... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US Banks continue to strengthen balance sheets According to the latest data from the FDIC, US banks continued to benefit from shrinking loan losses in the second quarter, which allowed them to maintain a high capital ratio even as they expanded... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that households are becoming more nervous. Coming after last week’s soft durable goods orders data, this is another... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q2) The moderation in the pace of economic growth does not appear to have had a significant detrimental impact on the recovery in US house prices. At the end of the second quarter, prices on the National... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada close to dropping hawkish bias The Bank of Canada's policy statement next week is likely to retain its hawkish bias about the need to raise interest rates. Given the faltering global economy and stalling domestic housing market... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Businesses becoming increasingly cautious The sharp downturn in capital goods orders suggests that the continuing euro-zone crisis and growing uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy are having an increasingly marked impact on... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal policy stuck between a rock and a hard place Many Fed officials appear increasingly concerned that the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for fiscal policy is already starting to curb household and business spending. Unless Congress acts, a... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 12) At first glance the 4.2% m/m surge in July's durable goods orders looks very impressive, but nothing could be further from the truth. This is a very weak report. The slump in core capital goods orders... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy struggling to absorb economic slack We now estimate that second-quarter GDP grew by an estimated 1.6% annualised, slightly below the Bank of Canada's revised 1.8% prediction. More importantly, economic growth below 2% is not enough to... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) July’s rise in new home sales was clearly welcome news. And it does little to dissuade us from the view that the housing market has shifted from being a clear drag on the wider economy to offering... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of QE3 The US Fed looks set to launch QE3 soon, but a third injection of the same medicine is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as the first two in supporting the prices of equities or commodities... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
