US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) While the 3m/3m growth rate was positive in all metros in September, employment fell in Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh on the month. That left employment in just Austin, Phoenix and... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Mortgage rates rose to an eight-month high in October, which drove a significant decline in refinancing activity. But home purchase demand saw a much smaller dip, and we expect it will trend down only... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Making sense of the latest strong data on US real estate Recent data releases and surveys show a booming commercial real estate market, particularly in the industrial and apartment sectors. While the level of prices is raising some eyebrows, we don’t see... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Market pricing too aggressive despite hawkish Bank Following the Bank of Canada’s hawkish message this week there is a risk that it raises interest rates sooner than we anticipate. Nevertheless, we continue to doubt that the Bank will hike by as much... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP growth was weaker than expected in August and the preliminary estimate implies the economy stagnated last month. With third-quarter growth seemingly much weaker than the Bank’s latest forecasts... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Rising mortgage rates will cool house price growth Mortgage rates have risen to a six-month high and will increase further over the next couple of years. While inventory is set to remain tight, cutting the risk of an outright fall in house prices... 28th October 2021 · 18 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta drag easing, but shortages worsening We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) Overall sentiment saw little change this quarter, but there was a notable reduction in office occupier demand and three-month rent expectations. The bigger picture is that, with no respondents viewing... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) Surveyors reported a continued improvement in occupier demand and investment enquiries in Q3, and notably the net balance for offices turned positive on both measures. That said, surveyors expect... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2021) Consensus forecasts for 2021 have been upgraded in all four major sectors on the back of strong investor demand. But tellingly the picture is more varied for 2022-23, where industrial and apartment... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
