Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks rose last week on a release of strategic reserves and a jump in net imports. Exports could fall further in the coming weeks given the need to rebuild stocks at the WTI Cushing hub... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank ends QE and pulls forward guidance on first hike The Bank of Canada called time on its QE program today and indicated that it could raise interest rates as soon as the second quarter of next year. The Bank’s GDP forecasts still look too upbeat to us... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The weakness in headline durable goods orders last month was driven by another fall in transport orders, which mostly reflects worsening supply problems in the auto market. The strong increase in... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Aug./Sep.) The FHFA reported that annual house price inflation declined in August for the first time since May 2020. Rising mortgage rates mean that slowdown will continue, and we expect it to fall back to 3% y... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Global steel output plunged in September primarily owing to a dramatic decline in China’s production. We suspect that China’s output will remain low for some months yet, which will act as a floor... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2021) The NCREIF index recorded a huge 5.2% quarterly return in Q3 thanks to further improvement in all sectors. With no sign of any let-up in investment demand, that puts annual returns on course to exceed... 26th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to higher wage inflation Wage growth remained moderate over the summer but, with labour shortages intensifying, it seems likely to accelerate sharply soon. The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS)... 26th October 2021 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus How pandemic changes will affect US metros Americans are returning to cities, but the return to the office has been much slower. We see suburban areas being net winners in the residential and retail sectors, although the picture for downtown... 22nd October 2021 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth to disappoint as CRB ends The winding down of government support to households and firms means the economy faces a large fiscal contraction this quarter, which we think will cause GDP growth to disappoint. 22nd October 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Examining the threat to US equities from rising wage inflation We expect rising wage inflation in the US to squeeze the profits of the non-financial corporate sector, which were a record high as a share of its output in Q2. This is one reason why we think the... 22nd October 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales increased markedly in August, as expected, but they appear to have fallen sharply in September and the expiry of the CRB presents a downside risk to spending over the rest of the year. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are too many homes being built? Increased demand for larger homes to accommodate working from home and continued migration to the sunbelt will support housing demand even as population growth slows. We therefore don’t think the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Great Resignation and Striketober Employees are flexing their new-found bargaining power, with the unprecedented rate of job turnover, labelled “The “Great Resignation”, triggering a surge in wage growth for job switchers. Wage growth... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The 7.0% m/m rise in existing home sales in September does not mark the start of an upward trend in activity. With mortgage rates rising, inventory close to record lows and home buying sentiment at 39... 21st October 2021 · 2 mins read
