US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in October confirms that the weakness in August and September was just a temporary blip and, given the circumstances, a December... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to cope with oil shock Although the mild recession in the first half of this year has ended, the drag from falling business investment triggered by the slump in oil prices is far from over and growing imbalances in the... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose once again last week. However, despite an increase in crude production, the stock build was much smaller than the previous week’s, as refinery inputs continued to pick up and... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat'l Trade (Sep.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Oct.) The big narrowing in the trade deficit in September is encouraging, but that improvement won't last. The dollar’s surge over the next 12 months means that the deficit is likely to widen again and net... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) Exports lost momentum during the third quarter, with volumes stagnating in September after falling in August, suggesting that the economy is unlikely to sustain the estimated 2.5% annualised GDP... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Following the surge in mortgage applications for home purchase in September, due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules, the fact that applications only dipped marginally in October is a... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Even accounting for the fact that over the past few months the first estimate of house price inflation from CoreLogic has consistently been revised down, today’s reading of a seasonally adjusted 1.3%... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Boom in business lending may be fading The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that growth in business investment in equipment will remain muted over the remainder of this year. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The very modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to 50.1 in October from 50.2 in September, illustrates that the strong dollar and weak global demand are still weighing very heavily on the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation measure likely to be switched next year Given the success of inflation targeting at lowering trend inflation and anchoring inflation expectations, the formal inflation-control agreement between the Bank of Canada and Federal government isn... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still likely to delay first rate hike The Fed clearly wanted to signal last week that a rate hike in December was a realistic possibility but, on balance, we still anticipate that it will be delayed until early next year. It’s recently... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Canada’s economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August, much slower than in the previous two months. Those gains in June and July mean that the economy still grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% annualised in the third quarter, from a very strong 3.9% in the second, was mainly due to a big drag from inventories, which subtracted 1.4% points after making a... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed leaves door open to December rate hike The post-FOMC meeting statement released today certainly leaves open the possibility that the Fed will hike interest rates at the next meeting in December. Nevertheless, we still think that the Fed is... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
