US Economics Update Fed’s focus will shift to rate cuts before long By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury term premia may not fall back The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Sharper fall in wage growth still on the cards The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained unchanged on... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is fading and supports our view that the upturn in economic... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q3) The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Worrying signs for the US economy from CMBS spreads A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1)... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think it’s game over for AI-related equities Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t need to talk tough for much longer The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Has the AI productivity boom already begun? While we are optimistic about the prospects for an AI-related boom in productivity over the next decade, it’s hard to tell whether the current pick-up in growth is a genuine structural acceleration or... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Sep.) The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
