Africa Economics Weekly Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s debt problem: muddling through Ghana’s government is likely to slip behind on its fiscal consolidation plans in the coming years and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will probably continue to rise. While we think that the authorities... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s cocoa boom, core inflation still low in S. Africa Optimism is growing about a potential bumper cocoa harvest in Ghana, which could boost exports by more than 1% of GDP and presents an upside risk to our above-consensus growth forecasts. Meanwhile... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Putting monetary easing on hold We think that a recent string of on-target inflation data and a less accommodating external environment will delay further interest rate cuts in Ghana. But monetary loosening will probably resume in... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s cedi: Worst now behind us The dramatic weakening of Ghana’s cedi has been driven by a decline in investor sentiment, and does not reflect a deterioration in underlying macro fundamentals. Given strong growth and supportive... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
