Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pockets of vulnerability in MENA banking sectors Most banking sectors in the region (with the notable exception of Lebanon) have, so far, come through the COVID-19 crisis in relatively good shape. But with support programmes now being withdrawn... 18th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon and Tunisia face a tough task to tackle crises The IMF confirmed this week that technical talks with Lebanon have restarted. But even before any sort of deal is reached, the government has the tough task of restructuring its defaulted Eurobond... 21st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM The price of oil hit its highest level in nearly three years this week and, combined with rising oil output, will help support an improvement in budget and current account positions in the Gulf. This... 30th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil The continued rise in global gas prices will provide a substantial boost to Qatar's export revenues and provide scope for policymakers to loosen the purse strings to support the economic recovery... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries move to lift containment measures High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine... 26th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s COVID outbreak, Tunisia’s president tightens grip Fears are growing that Egypt is on the cusp of a fresh wave of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant, but past experience suggests that restrictions will remain light touch and there is growing hope... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Delta variant and EM tourism troubles The rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus adds to reasons to think that lacklustre economic recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent economies in Africa, parts of the Middle East... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike Tunisia’s President Kais Saied’s power grab on Sunday and moves over the course of this week will reinforce concerns about the future of democracy in the country and the likelihood of a sovereign debt... 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
