Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA Virus numbers have fallen in the past few months in the MENA region and a rapid vaccine rollout should allow most of the Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, to lift restrictions further over the... 21st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan car sector to drive recovery this year Morocco’s economy has slowed over the past few years, but we think that a recovery will take hold in 2020. Further out, we expect that the country will record growth in excess of 5% a year by 2030. 5th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Widening Moroccan CA deficit not a cause for alarm Morocco’s current account deficit ballooned to its largest level in four years in Q4, but we think that this is temporary and that the shortfall will narrow this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets under pressure as oil slumps The recent plunge in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, but it has taken a toll on local financial markets. Brent crude has plunged from $85pb at the start of October... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf to enter EMBI, another Egyptian dollar debt sale? JP Morgan’s announcement that it will include five GCC economies in its EMBI dollar bond indices should provide a further fillip to foreign investment in the region’s financial markets. Even so, we... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s prospects remain bright Morocco’s economy has slowed this year. But this is almost entirely a result of weakness in the agricultural sector, and we expect growth to strengthen in 2019. Moreover, as Morocco continues to... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to shrug off calls for deeper oil output cuts Oil policy in the Gulf has been thrust back into the spotlight after the Saudi government disclosed details of Aramco’s export allocations for November. But there is less to this than meets the eye... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
