Asia Chart Pack Political developments take centre stage Political developments have taken centre stage over the past month. Aside from Donald Trump’s election victory, most attention in Asia has focused on Korea, where President Park Geun-hye is clinging... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation sparks further bond market rally The government’s surprise demonetisation announcement has led to a sharp rise in bank deposits over the past couple of weeks. The rush of liquidity in the system has led to a fall in interbank rates... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand’s growth slowed in Q3 and looks set to soften further over the coming quarters, due to high levels of household debt, lacklustre global growth and continued political uncertainty. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP The demise of the TPP is a blow to economic prospects in Emerging Asia. The benefits of a China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the early impact of demonetisation Despite many anecdotal reports of turmoil in the wake of last week’s surprise demonetisation, and undoubted hardship for many, the early evidence suggests that the economic impact of the move has been... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) GDP data showed that the Philippines economy remains in good health, with growth picking up again in Q3. Looking ahead, the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External position healthy despite wider trade deficit Although the monthly trade deficit widened a touch in October, a number of factors should keep it in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
