Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might hike next? The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts on the horizon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are only a few months... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: policy rate on hold until at least end-2022 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q2 in Central Europe, weakness in India The latest data suggest that the Central European and some Asian economies will probably post strong GDP growth in Q2, but virus outbreaks have weighed on recoveries in India and parts of Latin... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Global demand peaking but shortages to stay There are tentative signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. But with demand for key components still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to persist for some time... 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 21st June) Korean export values look set to dip in June after a record high in May. We suspect goods export values have peaked. 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hawkish, vaccine hopes, Singapore trade softens Policymakers in Korea have started to sound increasingly hawkish about the outlook for monetary policy, supporting our view that the Bank of Korea will begin raising interest rates before the end of... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite booming economy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.125% despite the booming economy. With inflation relatively subdued and the currency at multi-year highs against the US dollar, we... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: policy to remain on hold for some time Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect rates to remain low to support... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
