Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela vote changes little, balance of payments strains intensify Yesterday’s referendum organised by Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly delivered a resounding defeat to the government, but the vote was unofficial and changes little in practice... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spillovers from Venezuela’s crisis limited to smaller economies The deepening crisis in Venezuela could have significant spillovers to some Central American and Caribbean countries such as Nicaragua and Cuba. But the impact on larger countries in the region... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update How will the crisis in Venezuela affect oil production? Continued weakness in Venezuela’s oil output this year should help the market to rebalance. In fact, the potential for further reductions in production represents an upside risk to prices. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Venezuelan GDP contracted by a staggering 19% in 2016 would mean that the country experienced the biggest one-year fall in output of any major EM in modern history... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft end to 2016 Latin America’s economy has ended 2016 on a relatively downbeat note. The news from Brazil has gone from bad to worse, with both industrial production and retail sales falling in the most recent... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read