Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela at a tipping point Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds have rallied strongly over the past few weeks as investors appear to be betting on a swift regime change and a smooth debt restructuring, but the markets risk... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What now for Venezuela? The decision by the US and other governments to recognise the leader of Venezuela’s opposition Juan Guaido as president seems to have ratcheted up the pressure on the Maduro regime. Regardless of how... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has plenty of room to increase production if it needed to offset falls in Iran and Venezuela. As such, the group’s production should continue to rise, at... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) We think that OPEC’s production is likely to rise significantly over the next couple of months. That said, it could fall back later in the year as output from Iran is curtailed and Venezuelan... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update New (higher) forecast for oil prices Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could sanctions on Venezuela impact oil prices? Even if the US imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector we doubt that the impact on oil prices will be substantial. The US has already halved its imports from Caracas with no discernible effect on... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’ With Venezuela’s state-owned oil company having reportedly failed to make a principal payment on a bond that has now matured, credit default swaps are likely to be triggered on Friday. This is sure to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
