Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: What would it take to scupper further BoJ rate hikes? The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged for a few months to assess the fallout from the trade war. However, our base case is that the trade war won’t provide a large enough drag on... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rebound in 10-year JGB yield has much further to run The trade war has merely delayed rather than scuppered further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the 10-year JGB yield will rise to 1.75% by year... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (April) The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) resumed its easing cycle today by lowering its policy rate by 25bp (to 5.50%) and in its communications highlighted the threat to economic activity from US... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Deflationary pressures persisted last month and will almost certainly deepen over the coming quarters as it becomes more difficult for Chinese firms to export their excess supply. 10th April 2025 (Updated 10th April 2025) · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle will run further than most expect The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by another 25bps today to 6.00% comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation and the headwinds from US tariffs. But... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s exports to the US set to collapse Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Escalating trade war will keep BoJ on sidelines for now Even if Japan’s attempts to negotiate a trade deal with Trump succeed quickly, concerns about the impact of escalating tensions between the US and other trading partners will force the Bank of Japan... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Small, low-income EMs bearing the brunt of Trump 2.0 President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What Trump’s tariffs mean for Asian economies and markets 10th April 2025, 8:00AM BST The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How an escalation of the trade war could affect ANZ Australia and New Zealand are safe havens in the current global trade storm because they have small manufacturing sectors, export little to the US and haven’t been hit with high US tariffs. We’re... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Estimating the shock to growth in Asia Economies in Asia have been hit with many of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs. The resulting fall in US demand could plausibly knock over 1% off GDP in several Asian economies over the coming year... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
